In this book, Alberto Carlos Almeida and Tiago Garrido look at the last eight presidential elections and public opinion to find the answer to the question: which candidate has the best chance of winning the 2022 presidential election?
In *The Brazilian Vote *, published on the eve of the 2018 presidential election, Alberto Carlos Almeida studied Brazilian voting patterns, providing evidence that helps us understand how the political dispute between the left and right in Brazil is structured—until that year, evident in the polarization between the Workers' Party (PT) and the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), and, during the campaign, with Bolsonaro assuming leadership of the right. In * The Hand and the Glove* , with Tiago Garrido, the electoral studies continue, this time analyzing another aspect of this dispute: how opinion polls reflect public sentiment before the election and influence the results at the polls.
According to the authors, in each election year, there is a climate of public opinion that favors a candidate, and they are on track to win regardless of the events of each campaign. In many cases, a given party's candidate would be defeated regardless; in others, the victory of a given narrative seems inevitable. A key component of any election, public opinion varies depending on what is happening in the country, especially due to variations in individual and collective well-being. Public opinion knows who is in government and who is in opposition and feels firsthand whether individual and family financial lives have improved or worsened. The real economy directly reflects the average voter's perceptions.
In a straightforward text filled with well-researched information, profound reflections on politics, and empirical evidence, A mão e a luva consecrates Alberto Carlos Almeida and Tiago Garrido as two new interpreters of Brazil.
"If you, like me, want to understand what led us to elect Collor, Fernando Henrique, Lula, Dilma, and Bolsonaro, and if you also want to know who is on track to win in 2022, and the reasons for their favoritism, this is the right book." - José Marcio Rego, Professor of Economics and Political Science at EAESP-FGV
